Via: Corrente
Live from Cairo (18)
BREAKING 10:10AM AJ Anch: AP, the Senior Army commander from Supreme Council of the Armed Forces says to the protesters that "all of their demand will be met." AJ sources confirm. No official word. 10:47AM NBC
says Mub to step down. 10:56AM Reuters, decision tonight. Lots of excitement and motion at the elite level, for sure! Still no official word.
Crawler: Military and NDP officials say Mub will meet protesters demands.
SUMMARY New demands emerge from TS for entire govt to step down and a year-long period of transition while a new Constitution is written. Supreme Council of the Armed Forces now in session. Mub was not at the meeting. 10:29AM They issued a statement that's totally ambiguous but highly significant, to which the TS crowds reacted positively.
* * *
AJ had a cameraperson embedded with the April 6 Movement (A6M) from January 25 on, and they just ran the documentary, "Seeds of Change". And you know how I like gardening metaphors! Key takeaways: 1. A6M started in a textile strike in 2006. 2. A6M also sought to learn from success, and looked to Srdja Popovic of Serbia's OTPOR for guidance. 3. Popovic shared that non-violence was key. 4. I can't help seeing AJ's airing of this show at this time as a media riposte to Sul's musings on coups and "dark bats". Perhaps they'll be better able to defend the gains of the movement in the light, rather than the shadows.
So, the leaderless movement in TS includes, if it is not driven by, a rather unassuming and yet extremely media-savvy set of twenty- and thirty-something activists. (I refuse to use the word "youth," because that implies a lack of maturity. In fact, the Egyptian movement has been stunningly, staggeringly mature.)
Some caveats: With Otpor, we enter a hall of mirrors on funding from US intelligence and ambiguous objectives -- although it's hard to see undermining Milosevic as anything other than a win for humanity. For now, I prefer to think of Popovic sharing information on tactics and strategy with A6M as a delicious example of blowback -- exactly like arming the Afghani mujaheddin with Stingers, and then reaping a religious whirlwind. Here, however, we armed A6M with non-violent tactics, and are reaping a secular whirlwind. None of the realism I introduce here should take away one iota of your awe from the achievements of the Egyptian movement. Everyone who overcomes fear is a hero, not just "facilitators" like A6M -- no matter how much the purveyors of narratives (definitely including AJ, here) would like the story hook of the "youthful leader" for their stories, along with an ending, whether happy or tragic. And we hear, over and over again, that losing the fear was a key moment for all the movement participants.*
Anyhow, I got so absorbed by the show that I forgot that I should live blog a transcript until it was far too late. So, I did some screen dumps to jog my memory, which I'll caption, also from memory -- which doesn't include people's names, rather appropriate in this case!
Popovic gave two reasons for NV. The first (IIRC) was what violence does to the person who engages in it. The second was that "whenever some idiot throw a rock, that becomes the story." (Reminds me of a Serbian proverb: "A fool throws a stone into the sea, and a hundred wise men cannot pull it out.")
Planning for TS. Note "another group" in the screen subtitle; A6M is not the only group involved.
They've got a good brand, though!
Putting in a satellite dish after the Internet and cellphone cutoffs.
Preparations against tear gas.
As the documentary went on, A6M members started showing up wounded.
The tactical response to the wave of looting from Mub's thugs.
Group portrait in the office (A6M was pretty overground). Not, at least, entirely male (and when three were arrested, one was a woman)
Tactical discussion.
Another group shot.
Tactical discussion; IIRC, A6M was with ElB in TS. None of this struck me as top-down; rather, it was committee work, thrashing things out.
More ElB tactical discussion.
More tactical discussion.
Reaction to Mub's speech (on TV in background).
A6M organizers/facilitators.
Thugs attack the protesters. A great image of polarization, literal, metaphorical, historical, sociological.
Security forces trash the A6M office.
* * *
On Wednesday ("The Gift of Water") I wondered what the TS crowd was doing for toilets. Surely not queuing up at the Museum? Now I have an answer via 3arabawy:
thewa7sh "Protesters start building toilets" @norashalaby one result of the meeting with student engineers to come up urban planning this morning.
One can't help but be reminded of the 9/11 hijackers, many of whom had post-graduate training, and at least one of whom was an engineer. TS is much more constructive!
* * *
Obviously, I'm in "Can't tell the players without a score card" mode. It's not easy to tell the real players from the fake ones, or effective opposition from ineffective opposition. (I imagine that many Egyptians think that we hold free and fair elections, and that both parties are different!). So I need to post on that, soon.
NOTE * This reminds me very much of the beneficial effects of coming out of the closet. We might remind ourselves that gay liberation was one of the very few truly successful... left? Populist? Party of humanity? movements of our generation.
10:10AM Rep, Jackie: TS crowd now demands entire demand step down, with a one-year transition period with a temporary Constititution a Council of Presidents. Then in a year, Parliamentary and Presidential elections. Via "organizers in the square." Anch: Military in difficult position. A divided military between those who want to impose order by force and those not. Originally military loved by the crowd, and promised not to use force. Now Sul has said this can't go on, and anything more than what has been offered is a coup. Cracks in the chain of command now? Anch: Port Said? Int: Incident several days ago, 5 months govt promised housing and didn't, so yesterday protests grew, govt buildings set on fire, including the main security building. Anch: Friday mood for next march? Int, Jackie: Mood is one of defiance. Many more here today. People recieve SMS for 20 million demonstration, and told where else they can meet if they can't get to TS. Organizers hopeful since others are joining. Anch: AP says Senior Army command that all of their demand will be met. Int: Then Mub will go, that's always been their first demand with no disagreement from anyone.
10:12AM AJ tweets in semi-confirmation:
evanchill Reports saying Mubarak may delegate powers to Suleiman, would likely be followed by a symbolic departure, possibly to Sharm el-Sheikh
.
* * *
evanchill profile
evanchill The New York Times sure knows how to cover a press conference. Friedman, Shadid, Kirkpatrick and Farrell all at the journo syndicat
BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!! The bigfoots never change!
* * *
10:12AM Egyptian officer: Awaiting orders that will "make the people happy."
10:25AM State TV Supreme Council convened. Military statement read. Several times, it seems. WTF???
Statement #1 Meet regularly and the armed forces to continue to monitor the situation.
Bafflegab!
Crawler: Mub not at the meeting, Defense Minister conducted. [And we all know what happens to people who aren't at the meeting.... --lambert]
Anch: Resolved to keep meeting to study. WTF with this statement? Rep, Evan: Interesting but ambigious. Two things: 1. SCAF to meet regularly, were they not doing that? 2. What does "safeguard people and asserts" mean? Significant, because statements trickling out have always come at significant junctures, like military asking people to guard streets, say they will not use force, etc. Play out over next few hours. Anch: Mub not at the meeting. Significant? Rep: Yes. What is the meaning of this message? [Future lies ahead...]
10:30AM Rep, TS: People assumed Sul statement [the "bats" and so forth] meant a coup, so they interpret the statement to mean, "no coup." Cheers and chanting. Various speakers on various stages throughout TS. Chant: "The Army and the people are one." [Anch says, bring this up, so we can hear."] Anch: Lots of rumor, nothing is confirmed. Reuters told protesters in TS that: "Everything you want will be realized."
10:34AM Rep, Evan: No unexpected activity at the airports. Rep, Jackie: Watching a giant screen at the side of the square [broadcasting what??? --lambert]
10:37AM Anch: What does this mean? Nowara, National Council for Change [ElB's thing], int: Means Mub step down, people have made the revolution, Army [missed it, safeguard] [I want to see the official statements. --lambert] Anch: People accept Army takeover 'til Sept? Int: We were in deadlock, speak for myself, think that the power equation between the people and the state has changed, so I don't fear the army will hold onto power. Army should come out with a roadmap and a timetable with elections.
10:41AM Energy already up in the TS, people planning to stay in TS, not to miss anything, but a lot of rumors.
10:42AM Rep, Alexandria: Cafes, very quick to notice absence of Mub from the meeting. Euphoria. They feel they are in touching distance.
* * *
Here's a summary of the Egyptian opposition from Foreign Policy. As a Versailles
publication, the focus is "How can we find a local to negotiate with" so IMNHSO it overstates the role of ElB, but here is what they say on A6M:
For the last two years the April 6 Movement has organized demonstrations in support of workers’ rights and is now calling for increasing Egypt’s minimum wage. In 2008, it supported Egypt’s first major labor strikes in decades, in the industrial town of Mahalla, on the Nile Delta
.
* * *
AJ summarizes the state of play:
The Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces has met to discuss the ongoing protests against the government of Hosni Mubarak, the president.
Hassan al-Roweni, an Egyptian army commander, told protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Thursday that "Everything you want will be realised". Protesters have demanded that Hosni Mubarak stand down as president.
Hassam Badrawi, the secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party, told the BBC and Channel 4 News on Thursday that he expected Mubarak to hand over his powers to Omar Suleiman, the vice-president.
Ahmed Shafiq, the country's prime minister, told the BBC that the president may step down on Thursday evening, and that the situation would be "clarified soon".
In a statement telvised on state television, the army said it had convened the meeting of the supreme council in response to the current political turmoil, and that it would continue to convene such meetings.
"Based on the responsibility of the armed forces and its commitment to protect the people and its keenness to protect the nation... and in support of the legitimate demands of the people," the army "will continue meeting on a continuous basis to examine measures to be taken to protect the nation and its gains and the ambitions of the great Egyptian people," the statement said.
The meeting was chaired by Mohamed Tantawi, the defence minister, rather than Mubarak, who, as president, would normally have headed the meeting.
The army's statement was met with a roar of approval from protesters in Tahrir Square, our correspondent reported
10:50AM The NBC reports:
Update at 10:45 a.m. ET: NBC says Mubarak will make a statement this evening and step down. A statement by the armed forces on Egyptian state TV says the military convened the supreme council of the armed forces "to safeguard people and protect their interest." Al-Jazeera TV notes that Mubarak was not shown attending that meeting. [That is, I think, the key point. --lambert]
In its statement, the military says it the council will remain in session indefinitely during the crisis. It says the decision was made in response to "legitimate" popular demands. [Didn't get "indefinitely" from the AJ translation I heard. --lambert]
Update at 10:37 a.m. ET: NBC's Richard Engel says two independent sources have confirmed that Mubarak will step down. [The TS crowd is not reacting as if they had heard this, however. --lambert] In addition, the armed forces supreme council has convened to begin the orderly transition of power ["convened to begin" not exactly what I heard translated, however. --lambert], NBC says.
Update at 10:28 a.m. ET: NBC reports that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will step down tonight and that vice president Omar Suleiman will take over as president.
[Great news if confirmed, but I'd most definitely rely on AJ for the Egyptian nuance. See the AJ reporter's comment above about the people in the cafe noticing that Mub wasn't at the meeting leading to euphoria; the E people, like us, saturated in state media, would have picked up on that instantly. The NBC cites that, but doesn't interpret it. --lambert]
10:59AM Anch: CIA station chief says Mub to step down.
No comments:
Post a Comment